https://www.wired.com/2016/11/2016s-election-data-hero-isnt-nate-silver-sam-wang/
Accidentally tripped over this article while looking for something else. It was written right before the election, and it was proven hilariously wrong. Nate Silver via 538 gave Trump something around a 30-35% chance of winning the night of the election, whereas this guy gave Trump a 1% chance. Oops.