You know, I don’t trust Daily Kos polling information anymore. Right up to the end, they had polling that said Hillary was 88% or so likely to win against Trump, even as other polls were tanking hard and fast.
That’s not polling. That’s a forecast based on polling. Yes, it was a bad forecast, but don’t conflate polling and forecasting.
Also, it’s hard to not say that Clinton winning was the most possible outcome. Just because we only live in one universe, a lot of people look at past events and say that that was the only way it could have happened. People are not good with dealing with probabilities.
Also, to reiterate, Clinton’s chance of winning the election was probably lower than that forecast indicated.
What bothers me is that there is no definitive answer as to why Trump won. Everyone out there is guessing. Russia. Wikileaks. Comey. Bernie. Status quo. Rust belt. …I want someone with actual quantifiable evidence to say “this is why Trump won the primaries; and that is why Hillary’s poll numbers were oh-so-wrong, and EXACTLY why they tanked in the last week.”
But no. All we have is guesswork, blame games, and a good old fashioned hands-in-the-air WTF.
I do not take Daily Kos articles as evidence to support supposed fact. Not when the pollsters had worse aim than an OT Imperial Stormtooper.
There’s not going to be one reason. Failures are often multi-faceted, with many reasons and factors contributing.
Clinton’s poll numbers weren’t actually all that wrong. Polling averages had Clinton ahead on the eve of the election by four or so points. She won the popular vote by 2.1 points. The polls were actually more accurate than in 2012. The pollsters did a good job this time. Many people don’t acknowledge that.