Bannon’s interview IMO shows a canny strategist that basically understands Lee Atwater’s (Reagan/Bush strategist) premise that national politics in the US is ultimately about race, but rejects Atwater’s assertion that the racial messaging needs to be increasingly coded and indirect. Basically Atwater’s strategy was: if the election is about race, Democrats lose – but you can’t actually say it’s about race. Bannon just trims the last bit of the statement off.
In many ways, Trump’s victory already proved Bannon’s view right and Atwater’s wrong. But compare the victory with others, and I’m not so sure. With Reagan’s famous “states rights” speech standing right on the very site of the murdered civil rights workers, to his “welfare queens” boogeyman, Reagan was clearly engaged in racial messaging. But you had to be very context-aware to get this. Southerners knew “states’ rights” was code for rolling back civil rights, and standing over the dead bodies of their opponents just added to the symbolism. But northerners may have missed that entirely–it’s just a states’ rights speech at some fairground. Reagan also had an economic message, and a foreign policy message. And Reagan won–and won big.
Romney didn’t run on race at all, and neither did his opponent, so that election was all about the issues, except for voters who made an issue of Obama’s race on their own. And Romney lost.
Trump on the other hand was all race all the time. His policy positions were incoherent, implausible, and inconsistent, all at the same time. But his position on race never wavered. And he won–barely, with the help of a foreign government and a constitutional quirk. But in terms of numbers, he fared worse than Romney.
IMO Atwater’s idea that you needed to turn down the volume of your racist rhetoric as time went on was basically correct – but he was wrong about the timeframe. I’m hoping that 2016 marks the last time anyone will be able to win a national election with a campaign like that, but Trump will get bigger external assists next time too.