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Time for an update as the new info rolls in. Here’s my odds on various things happening (no timeline) after the events of last week.
“Smoking gun”-type indisputable evidence of criminal wrongdoing by senior administration official available to public: 100% (unchanged from last time, but now we actually have it, so we’ll remove this metric as not worth predicting anymore)
Successful RICO prosecution of senior administration official: 90% (+5%)
Presidential pardon of senior administration official: 90% (+10%)
Impeachment of senior administration official: <1% (unchanged)
All mainstream media access to White House revoked: with the latest press briefing restrictions, it’s difficult to tell of this has already happened, I’ll remove this metric as too vague
All mainstream media (including Fox) access to White House revoked: same
Dems take the Senate (meaning 51+ seats) in 2018: 0% (unchanged)
Dems take the House in 2018: 2% (+2%)
Trump average approval rating (Gallup): 36% (unchanged)
Trump re-elected in 2020: 60% (unchanged)
Trump appoints one or more additional Supreme Court justice: 80% (+40%)I can understand, but cannot accept, the fact that >50% of the voting public are powerless to impeach a president who’s campaign engaged in collusion with a hostile foreign nation to ascend to power.
Keep in mind impeachment and removal from office are two different things, the hurdle for the latter being significantly higher.
This is true. Impeachment, as I understand it, merely means to bring to trial. Andrew Johnson and Bill Clinton were impeached, but, neither were removed from office. Nixon was never impeached. He resigned before he was impeached.
