Dems take the Senate (meaning 51+ seats) in 2018: 0%
Dems take the House in 2018: 0%
From the article:
I’ve framed these losses in terms of votes lost rather than seats lost because converting from one to the other is tricky. That there are fewer and fewer swing districts is an undoubtedly big help to Republicans. On average since 1922, the 7.5-point popular vote swing against the president’s party has translated into a loss of 29 seats in the House, but Democrats probably wouldn’t get quite so favorable an exchange rate. And there are other factors that go into the calculation, such as how strong the incumbency advantage is and how broadly the opposition party contests the map. It’s the sort of thing that you’d probably want a model to help figure out, and we don’t have a model yet.
The Republicans will lose a ton of votes, and that will be most visible in the House. More people will vote for Democrats than Republicans by a huge and maybe even unprecedented margin. That much we all agree with. It’s the votes-to-seats modeling where the difference lies. I think right now the Dems are slated to win the popular vote in the House by something like 11 points. That’s huge. But I think the gerrymandering of the House is enough to maintain a Republican majority against even a Democratic tsunami like that. Call me back when 538 has a model.
The Senate? Look at the map. I see exactly two Democratic pickup opportunities (NV and AZ), and AZ will be hard-fought. On the other hand, will Democrats hold on to ND? WV? IN? Holding onto MO will be a huge stretch. In the Senate, the Dems will lose seats. Losing only one seat would be a sign of an unprecedented Democratic wave.
Don’t really disagree with much there either. They’re saying there’s a huge Democratic wave coming. I agree.
Trump re-elected in 2020: 60%
At most the odds are 50-50. I think you overestimate their chances.
That’s so far off I’ll admit my numbers will certainly change by the time it happens. Nevertheless, remember that pretty much everyone knew Trump was Putin’s man in 2016 and he still won. Russia could afford to be a lot less subtle in 2020. And Trump will definitely lose the popular vote again, and by a larger margin.