There is an aspect to this Obamacare/repeal/replace effort that I haven’t seen discussed, so here goes:
Every time I talk to someone that is angry about Obamacare, their reason is simple: “my premiums went up”. Well, of course they went up. Requiring coverage for pre-existing conditions, and expanding health care for the previously uninsured was certain to raise premiums for those who previously were insured. How could it not?
Right now, a lot of reports seem to assume that if Obamacare is repealed, then the sudden loss of insurance for 20 million people will backfire on Trump and the Republicans. Hogwash! There are over 300 million people in the U.S., so by that math less than 10% of people would lose their insurance. Heck, if 100 million people lost their insurance, that would only be 33% of the people. And then what would happen?.. a huge majority of people will see their premiums go back down. All those people who complained that Obamacare caused their premiums to go up - surely the vast majority of Americans - will rejoice that Trump saved the day and their premiums went back down, “correcting” the wrong done by Obama.
All that is required to stay in power is to make the majority happy. How did slavery manage to last so long? Because most people vote their pocketbook. The republicans are going to be heros.
One factor to take into consideration: the cost of health insurance has continued to rise for decades, so I doubt that it would decrease with the repeal of the ACA. Perhaps it wouldn’t rise as fast, but there are factors other than the ACA to take into account.