It would be pointless to put out a new transfer this late in the game unless it’s being released day and date on 4k UHD. Even then, they’d need to throw in the unaltereds for people to actually care.
The fact that they just put out the new steelbooks and the digital HD last year make me think you’re probably right, but that 2011 blu ray really is bad enough to warrant a remaster of its own. If a few years had gone by without a repackaging, I don’t think it would have been surprising or inappropriate to give the SE an overhaul, regardless of the status of the OUT.
Although I could still see the scenario of a new SE without an OUT playing out if they do a theatrical rerelease for the anniversary next spring. That would be a reason for them to be prepping a 4K version, and they’d be able to refer to it as “remastered” which would probably get more asses in the seats. Then at Christmas, they put out some sort of nifty box set of either the OT or the entire saga using the new masters.