For some reason, I kept a careful eye to to see what were easy cuts and what weren't while I was watching. Strangely enough, I believe that the entire Azog plotline can be cut outside of the "15 birds" section, and even then they looked like they could just be the toughest of the Goblins rather than the audience going "who are these guys?". I also think, in order for it to feel more like Bilbo's story, the entire Goblin City section could be cut except for the Gollum bits. And to keep the story from feeling bloated, I also think that the entire prologue can go, all of Radaghast, the stone giants, etc. Not that some of these aren't great moments, but during the film they just felt like unnecessary roadblocks just to fulfill a certain number of action beats.
And these could all go without any significant. For instance, with the stone giants, Bilbo almost slips off the cliff right before the giants come out. Right after, he almost slips off the cliff again. I think that could easily be combined into one moment without much editing magic. It would make for a very short film on its own, but I think as soon as the other films come out there can really be a nice trim version that cuts out most of my personal complaints.