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CatBus

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18-Aug-2011
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22-Jul-2017
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Post
#1091943
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

So this may not be news to anyone else, but it just occurred to me today.

Since the Civil Rights Act and the whole realignment of the Democratic and Republican parties in their current forms, the Republicans have always won the Presidency in spite of having fewer registered voters and less popular policies, except when the previous Republican administrations have thrown the nation into political/legal chaos (Carter), economic chaos (Obama), if a major third party spoiler candidate draws votes away from Republicans (Clinton), or if the previous Democratic administration was very popular (Clinton and Obama 2nd terms, and even explaining Gore and Clinton II’s popular wins).

So basically if Nixon never got caught, Bush II was a little smarter, and Perot never ran, I believe it would have been wall-to-wall Republicans from the moment Johnson left office (Johnson’s “We’ve lost the South for a generation” remark was correct in principle, but too conservative both numerically and geographically). Kinda depressing really. It means that the Democratic mantra of “high turnouts = Dem wins” actually means that Dems need a huge disaster to rally enough voters to win, and on the Republican side it doesn’t really matter if they run a guy who’s smart and qualified or a walking, talking shitstain, they’ll win if they can simply avoid these factors.

But it does speak well for the future, since Trump is not as good as hiding things as Nixon, is dumber than Bush II, and is sowing political/legal chaos like weeds, and may even steer the nation into economic chaos as well (it’s early in his term, after all, give him time). And if the Republicans manage to wrest control back to some pseudo-mainstream candidate like Pence or even Kasich, well, then a third party white supremacist option in the mold of Wallace/Trump could very well be in the mix.

Doesn’t do much for 2018 though. And it doesn’t take the Russian factor into account at all.

This post has been edited.

Post
#1091783
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trumps-lawyers-seek-to-undercut-muellers-russia-investigation/2017/07/20/232ebf2c-6d71-11e7-b9e2-2056e768a7e5_story.html?utm_term=.a974045f12c0

Trump has asked his advisers about his power to pardon aides, family members and even himself in connection with the probe, according to one of those people. A second person said Trump’s lawyers have been discussing the president’s pardoning powers among themselves.

Trump’s legal team declined to comment on the issue. But one adviser said the president has simply expressed a curiosity in understanding the reach of his pardoning authority, as well as the limits of Mueller’s investigation.

“This is not in the context of, ‘I can’t wait to pardon myself,’ ” a close adviser said.

Of how I do revel in the fact that the President can only pardon federal crimes. RICO, money laundering, fraud, tax evasion, they can all be prosecuted by states. Schneiderman may end up being the hero in this piece too. Although Trump may be roomies with Snowden by the time it gets around to that (assuming Snowden’s place is watertight).

Post
#1091778
Topic
Return of the Pug (ROTP) - webpage and screenshots
Time

Are any of our veteran framecounters watching this thread? I’d be interested if Chewtobacca or Darth Mallwalker are planning to do a post-release GOUT-to-ROTP conversion script over in the GOUT sync thread.

Post
#1091732
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

nrasool said:

For Dems to win in 2018 who do you think should lead them? I liked Bernie, he had some fans over here in the UK like Corbyn. However a lot of people on the far right feel empowered much like over here, plus there is a lot of people not voting so who do you think should lead the Democrats now?

The party’s “leader” in non-Presidential elections is the head of the DNC, which is Tom Perez. There’s some figurehead-leadership positions, and the presumptive Speaker of the House may take a campaigning role (that’s presumably Nancy Pelosi). It’s only in Presidential election years that the figurehead is a strong enough standard-bearer to realistically be called the leader of the party as well. It’s the American system–the opposition party doesn’t usually doesn’t have a leader in the Corbyn sense, someone who’s an officeholder and clear party leader at the same time.

Also, I don’t think Dems winning in 2018 has as much to do with who’s “leading them” as how you define winning.

Under inspired, brilliant leadership, the Democrats will take over quite a lot of state governorships, and maybe a few state legislative chambers as well. They’ll also have a very remote chance of taking the House, and will lose only a few seats in the Senate.

Under lackluster, middling leadership, the Democrats will take over quite a lot of state governorships, and maybe a few state legislative chambers as well. They’ll also have no chance of taking the House, and will lose about six seats in the Senate.

And that’s all assuming voting functions more or less the way it should. As you said, the far-right feels very empowered and has had great success with overt voter intimidation and voting-related violence in the past.

Post
#1091709
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

TV’s Frink said:

Oooh, here we go!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/07/20/trump-set-a-red-line-for-robert-mueller-and-now-mueller-has-reportedly-crossed-it/?utm_term=.a39b4bca338a

Bloomberg News is reporting that the Russia investigation led by special counsel Robert Mueller is zeroing in on President Trump’s business transactions.

The report quoted an anonymous source as saying that Trump’s financial ties to Russia are the focus: “FBI investigators and others are looking at Russian purchases of apartments in Trump buildings, Trump’s involvement in a controversial SoHo development with Russian associates, the 2013 Miss Universe pageant in Moscow and Trump’s sale of a Florida mansion to a Russian oligarch in 2008.” The Washington Post has not independently confirmed Bloomberg’s report.

Somebody is basically daring Trump to try to fire Mueller.

Here’s where we see what our constitutional safeguards are worth, a statement which can be expressed equally well in deadpan pessimist voice or steely, determined optimist voice.

Post
#1091658
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

NeverarGreat said:

TV’s Frink said:

I’d still rather live there. At least Syrian babies could get in the country and old Americans would still have healthcare.

I’m on the fence about it. On the one hand, yes, Trump has done some heinous crap and eroded the norms of political discourse, but one could argue that this had already happened in 2016. At least in this universe, the Republicans can’t constantly blame the Democrats for the state of the government (though they continue to try), and there is at least a chance that the midterms will be favorable to the Democrats.

And in early 2009 I breathed a sigh of relief, saying to myself “America survived the W administration! We’ll never have a worse administration that that!”

Post
#1091458
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

TV’s Frink said:

TV’s Frink said:

Never mind, the problem was Trump not putting a damn space after a period because he’s not interested in proper English.

Also I should point out the other problem, which is that Markdown (the text editor, not the OT.com user) is stupid.

This editor uses Markdown syntax, which makes it easy to add formatting like italics, bold, and lists:

Preview this post to see the results.

For more details, see this Markdown demo.

Post
#1091402
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

So this is the Obamacare plan going forward.

We are looking at the cost-sharing payments on a month-to-month basis. We made them today. We’ll make them tomorrow. But I don’t think we’ll see a long-term commitment from this administration," Mulvaney explained.

In plain English, we will continue to continue to entertain the same CSR negligence that led directly to the most recent insurance rate hikes and marketplace exits. Insurers need to predict an entire year when setting rates, so even if we decide to fund the CSR’s every month, the uncertainty that we might not will cause insurance rates to continue to go up and insurers to continue to leave the market.

Then, in retrospect, we have our sound-bite. Obamacare exploded all on its own. We funded the CSRs and the insurance markets still failed.

EDIT: Also, they would definitely fail to fund the CSR’s if any insurers decided to play politically savvy and call the administration’s bluff, failing to raise rates by enough to cover what would happen if the CSR’s weren’t funded, driving anyone out of business who doesn’t go along with the rate hike game. If it walks and talks like racketeering…

This post has been edited.

Post
#1091390
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

SilverWook said:

There were people standing by Nixon until the bitter end. (And probably think fondly of him today if they’re still around.) Approval ratings aren’t going to save anyone if they’ve broken the law.

Pardons can save lots of people, though, and a high enough approval rating leads to a removal-proof and even investigation-proof Senate.

The Senate can also do a lot more damage than failing to act, too. After all, what prevents the Senate from opening a select committee investigating Robert Mueller’s involvement in killing Vince Foster? The same thing that prevented the Benghazi hearings–the lack of enough chutzpah to carry out an obviously political show trial. Don’t think they won’t.

Post
#1091345
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

This is why Trump is absolutely never going under ~29% approval, and very likely never going under ~33% among voters.

only 45% of Trump voters believe Donald Trump Jr. had a meeting with Russians about information that might be harmful to Hillary Clinton […] 32% say the meeting didn’t happen and 24% say they’re not sure.

So, with some extrapolation based on Trump’s 46% of all voters, that’s about 14% of voters who have already actively decided that denying reality is the way to go, and another 11% who would like to hear what the alternate-reality people have to say before they make up their minds on the whole reality thing. Together, that’s 25% that IMO are so deep in the tank for Trump they’ve grown gills, and they’re never coming out (because that “not sure” is almost certainly a mere pretense of objectivity, like climate change denial). Presumably there are also some hardcore Trump supporters who function in the real world, but forgive absolutely everything because Trump put Gorsuch on the Supreme Court or spoke at their family cross burning ceremony, so I’m adding a conservative 4% for that, although I’d say it’s probably higher. Trump’s approval only needs to stay above ~32% for the Senate to stay safely in Republican control through 2022.

Post
#1091205
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

While so far the only surprise revelation about Trump/Russia to me has been the staggering incompetence of the whole operation, that’s only half-true. Only the American side of the collaboration has been staggeringly incompetent–the Russian side has seemed thoroughly professional, canny and capable… in an evil sort of way of course.

Which is why I’m seeing this as a good sign:

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/07/the-agalarovs-who-set-up-the-trump-russia-meeting-are-selling-their-jersey-homes/

When the Russian side of the equation decides to clear out of Dodge (selling assets before they’re seized), it’s likely because they know what’s coming, and are getting what they can while they’re still able to get it.

Post
#1090959
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

TV’s Frink said:

Before Trump ™ there was very little actual politics discussed in this thread.

Probably because, at that time, a critical minimum amount of it was being discussed by elected officials and their appointees.

Post
#1090761
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

TV’s Frink said:

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/886950594220568576?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet

Most politicians would have gone to a meeting like the one Don jr attended in order to get info on an opponent. That’s politics!

TV’s Frink said:

yhwx said:

doubleofive said:

mfastx said:

Nandi said:

I too think it would be best if Yoda remained a mystery and wasn’t a head of the council etc.
That he didn’t chose swampy forest because of an exile, but as a place to test himself, or a seclusion while he explores the Force, entire place for younger jedies should be sort of a pilgrimage where he decides are they worthy or not to be trained by him.

Didn’t he say he had a council on who was to be trained in ESB though?

“My own counsel will I keep, on who is to be trained!”

Counsel =/= Council

That’s just an interpretation though. He could have full well meant council.

No. No!

Also, props to the dude with the first comment under the tweet, for not using “buried the lead.”

Alternate Universe Hillary is turning out to be a scary beast indeed! She conspired with Russian intelligence to influence US elections! She installed her daughter as an unelected placeholder-in-chief! She had a tiny, practically nonexistent inauguration crowd!

Although, to be fair, the past twenty years have largely involved attacking Hillary for doing things that she demonstrably did not do (Vince Foster, the Benghazi stand down order, Pizzagate, etc). Trump’s foray into this field is just lowering the plausibility bar to even more absurd levels.

Post
#1090306
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

Keep in mind that if the FBI has you dead to rights on a serious criminal offense, they often let you retroactively clean up your paperwork (i.e. get legal) if you’re cooperating with the investigation/providing useful information on other high-value targets. I’m not saying Kushner’s cooperating, but he’s the latest in a string of Trump admin officials who have developed a sudden interest in getting their paperwork accurate & truthful at just about the same time their only other plausible escape route is a Presidential pardon (e.g. Flynn).

It’s also just as possible he’s following the family tradition of changing justifications every time he gets caught lying about the last one. But it’s an encouraging possibility–and we may never know what sort of deals were made–we’ll just see some people serving shorter sentences for less serious offenses than others.

That said, he could be cooperating and jockeying for a pardon, which is a pretty nonsensically over-the-top blinkered and self-centered chaotic fuck-everyone-else approach, which makes it a strong candidate in this instance too.

This post has been edited.

Post
#1090184
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

Moral bankruptcy having been achieved long ago, it looks like Team Trump may be trying to drive the GOP into the more traditional sort of bankruptcy.

Another question is who will pay the legal fees for the president and administration officials involved in the Russia inquiries. Some in Trump’s orbit are pushing the Republican National Committee to bear the costs, said three people with knowledge of the situation, including one who euphemistically described the debate as a “robust discussion.”

You thought the guy with a long, consistent history of leaving a trail of bankrupt organizations and unpaid bills in his wake would make an exception for you guys?

Post
#1090118
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

TV’s Frink said:

TV’s Frink said:

Also it’s all Lynch and Obama’s fault.

Also it’s perfectly normal and everyone does it.

Why, I promised to end Russian sanctions in exchange for aid from Russian intelligence services three times before breakfast today alone. It’s routine! Doesn’t everyone do this? And if they don’t, how is that my fault? It’s like not paying any taxes. Sure, other people pay taxes, but my yuge brain helps me seek out opportunities others may miss. It’s the Art of the Deal! Like my book! Buy my book! Or a condo! Or a high rise full of completely coincidental Russian money laundering operations!

Post
#1090110
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

TV’s Frink said:

At last count the number of people confirmed in the DJT/Russia meeting is approximately nine-hundred and thirty-seven.

Yeah but only 12% of them were Russian intelligence operatives with a history of orchestrating politically-motivated cyberattacks. So that’s like 88% fake news!

Post
#1090108
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

SilverWook said:

CatBus said:

Great, now we’ll be able to openly carry schnauzers, sausages, shrimp scampi, and shish kebabs, without having to tuck them into our jackets, which will do wonders for my dry cleaning bill.

Don’t forget bananas.

Or any other sort of fresh fruit. *grimace*

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