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The Digital Bits just posted an interesting link to an article here. It appears that Blu-Ray is considering copying HD-DVD by acquiring the same VC9 and MPEG-4 codecs that it uses.
I think it is foolish to push either of these formats next year if the studios are not on board. Columbia is owned by Sony, so they are comitting to Blu-Ray. Warner is said to be in support of HD-DVD, but that is only rumored so far. However, Warner, Buena Vista, and Fox were said to all be "impressed" by the HD-DVD manufacturing process in the above article.
There is another huge factor to consider. Whoever buys MGM is going to be a major player in the format war because they have the largest library of films. Currently, Warner and Sony have bid on MGM. I kind of hope Warner wins because that will free up all rights for New Line to do The Hobbit since MGM has distribution rights to that.
It really comes down to politics and greed. Sony and the other Blu-Ray backers either didn't want to pay royalties or wanted to come out with their own thing and collect their own royalties. What I mean is that a manufacturer who makes a DVD Player has to pay royalties to the DVD Forum if they want to be approved and have that DVD logo on the player. That logo is supposed to signify that this player meets DVD specifications in so many words. Consumers probably do not look at that, but it would be strange to see a DVD Player without that logo on it.
This is the same reason we have DVD+R/+RW. I'm not going to bash that format, but it is not part of the official DVD standard. That is why you will see a different logo on the packaging of DVD+R. DVD-R/-RW's have the same logo as DVD because they are part of the standard. I really couldn't tell you which is better. I use -R because my I bought my writer early and that's all it does. My player will play both, so I will probably buy a dual layer burner that does both + and - dual layer whenever they come out.
This is definitely going to be a very ugly format war. The ultimate victor will be the one who gets the most studio support. Based on the article I posted a link to, it looks so far that HD-DVD is probably the best way to go even if it doesn't hold as much data. It is much cheaper to manufacture and that is one thing the studios are going to be very happy about. The other factor will be encryption. Only time will tell.
Thanks Jimbo for the information on the compression codecs.
Patrick