So this may not be news to anyone else, but it just occurred to me today.

Since the Civil Rights Act and the whole realignment of the Democratic and Republican parties in their current forms, the Republicans have always won the Presidency in spite of having fewer registered voters and less popular policies, except when the previous Republican administrations have thrown the nation into political/legal chaos (Carter), economic chaos (Obama), if a major third party spoiler candidate draws votes away from Republicans (Clinton), or if the previous Democratic administration was very popular (Clinton and Obama 2nd terms, and even explaining Gore and Clinton II’s popular wins).

So basically if Nixon never got caught, Bush II was a little smarter, and Perot never ran, I believe it would have been wall-to-wall Republicans from the moment Johnson left office (Johnson’s “We’ve lost the South for a generation” remark was correct in principle, but too conservative both numerically and geographically). Kinda depressing really. It means that the Democratic mantra of “high turnouts = Dem wins” actually means that Dems need a huge disaster to rally enough voters to win, and on the Republican side it doesn’t really matter if they run a guy who’s smart and qualified or a walking, talking shitstain, they’ll win if they can simply avoid these factors.

But it does speak well for the future, since Trump is not as good as hiding things as Nixon, is dumber than Bush II, and is sowing political/legal chaos like weeds, and may even steer the nation into economic chaos as well (it’s early in his term, after all, give him time). And if the Republicans manage to wrest control back to some pseudo-mainstream candidate like Pence or even Kasich, well, then a third party white supremacist option in the mold of Wallace/Trump could very well be in the mix.

Doesn’t do much for 2018 though. And it doesn’t take the Russian factor into account at all.