this is really more about getting May out from under that “temporary caretaker government” shadow after Cameron left?
I don’t think she is seen as a “temporary caretaker government” at all, she was the overwhelmingly popular candidate for Party Leader/PM. I think it’s more about shutting up dissenting voices (of all parties) in Parliament of the “Yes we agree you’ve got a mandate for Brexit, Prime Minister… but not this kind of Brexit!” variety. She’s going to ask the country clearly and directly “Do you want a Brexit on my terms?”. The electorate will most probably answer, “Yes please!” emphatically and she can get on with the business of doing just that.
Is my understanding correct that this isn’t really expected to change anything substantive? i.e. the people, parliamentary percentages, policies, etc, aren’t really expected to change much at all
Not really, I think things will change quite a bit because the Labour opposition party will most likely be wiped out due in large part to how deeply unpopular their leader (and cabinet) is, which I’m sad to say is probably for their own good in the medium to long term. Hopefully the Lib-Dem party will get back some seats after they were annihilated at the last election.
I think the general consensus is that the Conservative party will win.
This is possibly a misjudgement. When Gordon Brown the most unpopular PM for aeons finally got around to doing what May is doing here after inheriting a gulf war mess from Blair all the Tories could manage was a coalition. They were expected to lose the last election or have to make another coalition with UKIP or some other party.
The secret ingrediant to their majority was Brexit. UKIPers flipped sides to insure they got the referendum. Scotland evicted Labour for supporting the Conservatives and the Liberals lost their nice guy image propping up the Tories in coalition and breaking their manifesto pledges.
We have now a slightly different world. Brexit has happenend, it can’t unhappen so UKIP doesn’t need to exist anymore. Austerity isn’t working and isn’t popular. The SNP need someone the can do business with in Downing Street and May is not that PM.
Corbyn has always been anti-EU (just like Tony Benn). The old Labour zealots that voted Tory to get Brexit may return to the fold now that Brexit is unavoidable. The people that voted Tory as a protest against Blair and Brown will now vote Green rather than vote for the Tories.
My prediction Corbyn will suprise everyone by narrowly winning with the remainers voting against the Conservatives with the same zeal that the Brexiteers voted for them.
That’s if he stays of the hills and doesn’t have a heart attack.